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Jutrzenka Giebułtów vs Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
FT
1 – 1
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
9/30/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 4Gminny Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Jutrzenka Giebułtów33%
×Draw21%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
1.69
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
2.02

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski creates 20% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 70 away

creates per match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
1.50
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.30

allows per match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
2.75
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.89

finishing

Jutrzenka Giebułtów+0.00on par
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jutrzenka Giebułtów ↓

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Jutrzenka Giebułtów or draw
54%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
79%
Draw or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
67%

Winning margin

Jutrzenka Giebułtów wins by 2+
16%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 1+ goals
82%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 2+ goals
50%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3+ goals
24%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals
87%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals
60%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Jutrzenka Giebułtów (draw refunded)
42%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jutrzenka Giebułtów at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 20 matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.89 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów attack 1.50 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.69

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.30 + Jutrzenka Giebułtów defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jutrzenka Giebułtów scores more
33%
level
21%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more
46%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jutrzenka Giebułtów vs Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

Jutrzenka Giebułtów and Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on September 30, 2020.

The match was played at Gminny Stadion Sportowy in Zabierzów.