Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2–2 Czarni Połaniec

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Czarni Połaniec

3/19/2022

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 20Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski42%

×Draw24%

Czarni Połaniec34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orlęta Radzyń PodlaskiExpected goals in this matchCzarni Połaniec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.48

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

1.68

Czarni Połaniec

1.48

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski creates 14% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 85 away

1.34

creates per match

1.34

1.62

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

1.34

Czarni Połaniec

1.34

allows per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

1.62

Czarni Połaniec

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par

Czarni Połaniec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski ↓

Czarni Połaniec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or draw

66%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or Czarni Połaniec

76%

Draw or Czarni Połaniec

58%

Winning margin

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+

22%

Czarni Połaniec wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals

81%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals

50%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals

24%

Czarni Połaniec 1+ goals

77%

Czarni Połaniec 2+ goals

43%

Czarni Połaniec 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)

56%

Czarni Połaniec (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.62 · 71 matches

Czarni Połaniec away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.02 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.34 + Czarni Połaniec defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.68

Czarni Połaniec attack 1.34 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more

42%

level

24%

Czarni Połaniec scores more

34%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff