Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Czarni Połaniec vs Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Czarni Połaniec
Czarni Połaniec
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
10/14/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 12Stadion MKS Czarni Połaniec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Czarni Połaniec48%
×Draw23%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Czarni Połaniec
1.81
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.34

Czarni Połaniec creates 35% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 70 away

creates per match

Czarni Połaniec
1.74
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.30

allows per match

Czarni Połaniec
1.38
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.89

finishing

Czarni Połaniec+0.00on par
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czarni Połaniec ↓

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Czarni Połaniec or draw
71%
Czarni Połaniec or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
77%
Draw or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
52%

Winning margin

Czarni Połaniec wins by 2+
27%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Czarni Połaniec 1+ goals
84%
Czarni Połaniec 2+ goals
54%
Czarni Połaniec 3+ goals
27%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals
74%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals
39%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Czarni Połaniec (draw refunded)
63%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czarni Połaniec at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.38 · 84 matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.89 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czarni Połaniec attack 1.74 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.81

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.30 + Czarni Połaniec defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Czarni Połaniec scores more
48%
level
23%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more
29%

Czarni Połaniec at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Czarni Połaniec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Czarni Połaniec 3–1 Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

Czarni Połaniec beat Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion MKS Czarni Połaniec in Połaniec.