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Orleans vs Arles — Ligue 2 2010

Orleans
Orleans
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Arles
Arles
L. Puyo 3' (pen)
F. Ouaamar 77'
1/9/2015Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 19Stade de la Source

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Orleans45%
×Draw28%
Arles27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orleans
1.31
Arles
0.96

Orleans creates 36% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 76 away

creates per match

Orleans
1.20
Arles
0.78

allows per match

Orleans
1.15
Arles
1.43

finishing

Orleans+0.00on par
Arles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 60Over: 4060%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 55Yes: 4555%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orleans ↓

Arles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Orleans or draw
73%
Orleans or Arles
72%
Draw or Arles
55%

Winning margin

Orleans wins by 2+
21%
Arles wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Orleans 1+ goals
73%
Orleans 2+ goals
38%
Orleans 3+ goals
14%
Arles 1+ goals
62%
Arles 2+ goals
25%
Arles 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Orleans (draw refunded)
62%
Arles (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orleans at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.15 · 80 matches

Arles away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.43 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orleans attack 1.20 + Arles defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.31

Arles attack 0.78 + Orleans defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Orleans scores more
45%
level
28%
Arles scores more
27%

Orleans at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Orleans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
L. PuyoPenalty
21'
Thomas Bosmel
31'
Robert Maah
33'
Teji Savanier
37'
Luigi Glombard
46'
B. Psaume← I. Bennacer
65'
J. Delonglée← M. Brillault
73'
Q. NGakoutou← L. Touré
73'
R. Bonne← F. Pinteaux
74'
S. Benmeziane← W. Louisy-Daniel
77'
F. Ouaamar
78'
Samuel Gigot
87'
L. Arnaud← E. Maah

Possession

Orleans: 46Arles: 5446%Orleans

Statistics

OrleansArles
Overview
46%Possession54%
6Corners4
18Fouls20
Shots
2On Target4
3Off Target1
Passing
46%Possession54%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
18Fouls20
1Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Orleans vs Arles

Orleans and Arles drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on January 9, 2015.

Goals: L. Puyo (3' pen), F. Ouaamar (77').

Arles dominated possession with 54% of the ball.

The match was played at Stade de la Source in Orléans.