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Arles vs Orleans — Ligue 2 2010

Arles
Arles
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Orleans
Orleans
S. Gigot 57'
K. Kone 46', 45' (pen)
T. Savanier 26'
J. Mendy 6'
5/15/2015Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 37Parc des Sports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Arles44%
×Draw28%
Orleans29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arles
1.33
Orleans
1.03

Arles creates 29% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 80 away

creates per match

Arles
1.03
Orleans
1.05

allows per match

Arles
1.01
Orleans
1.63

finishing

Arles+0.00on par
Orleans+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 58Over: 4258%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 53Yes: 4753%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arles ↓

Orleans →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Arles or draw
71%
Arles or Orleans
72%
Draw or Orleans
56%

Winning margin

Arles wins by 2+
20%
Orleans wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Arles 1+ goals
74%
Arles 2+ goals
38%
Arles 3+ goals
15%
Orleans 1+ goals
64%
Orleans 2+ goals
28%
Orleans 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Arles (draw refunded)
60%
Orleans (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arles at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Orleans away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.63 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arles attack 1.03 + Orleans defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.33

Orleans attack 1.05 + Arles defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Arles scores more
44%
level
28%
Orleans scores more
29%

Arles at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Arles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
J. Mendy
25'
Bruce Abdoulaye
26'
T. Savanier
44'
Bruce Abdoulaye
45'
K. KonePenalty
46'
K. Kone
49'
B. Psaume← M. Blanc
49'
F. Lajugie← L. Glombard
57'
S. Gigot
65'
B. Youssouf← T. Chérif
75'
S. Benmeziane← W. Louisy-Daniel
77'
J. Bopesu← T. Savanier
87'
O. N'Diaye← I. Bennacer

Possession

Arles: 60Orleans: 4060%Arles

Statistics

ArlesOrleans
Overview
60%Possession40%
7Corners2
11Fouls19
Shots
8On Target1
4Off Target2
Passing
60%Possession40%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls19
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
2Offsides2

Arles 4 – 1 Orleans

Arles beat Orleans 4-1 in Ligue 2 on May 15, 2015.

Goals: J. Mendy (6'), T. Savanier (26'), K. Kone (45' pen, 46'), S. Gigot (57').

Arles dominated possession with 60% of the ball.

The match was played at Parc des Sports in Avignon.