Orlando Pride W 4–1 North Carolina Courage W

Orlando Pride W

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

North Carolina Courage W

B. Banda 77', 40'

J. Doyle 45+2'

A. Watt 29'

E. Sams 52' (OG)

5/1/2024

NWSL Women · Round 5Inter&Co Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Orlando Pride W40%

×Draw26%

North Carolina Courage W35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orlando Pride WExpected goals in this matchNorth Carolina Courage W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.31

Orlando Pride W

1.42

North Carolina Courage W

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 82 away

1.47

creates per match

1.33

1.29

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Orlando Pride W

1.47

North Carolina Courage W

1.33

allows per match

Orlando Pride W

1.29

North Carolina Courage W

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orlando Pride W+0.00on par

North Carolina Courage W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlando Pride W ↓

North Carolina Courage W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Orlando Pride W or draw

65%

Orlando Pride W or North Carolina Courage W

74%

Draw or North Carolina Courage W

60%

Winning margin

Orlando Pride W wins by 2+

19%

North Carolina Courage W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Orlando Pride W 1+ goals

76%

Orlando Pride W 2+ goals

41%

Orlando Pride W 3+ goals

17%

North Carolina Courage W 1+ goals

73%

North Carolina Courage W 2+ goals

38%

North Carolina Courage W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Orlando Pride W (draw refunded)

53%

North Carolina Courage W (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlando Pride W at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 86 matches

North Carolina Courage W away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.37 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlando Pride W attack 1.47 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.42

North Carolina Courage W attack 1.33 + Orlando Pride W defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Orlando Pride W scores more

40%

level

26%

North Carolina Courage W scores more

35%

Orlando Pride W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Orlando Pride W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

B. Banda

Orlando Pride W · F

9.2

Match Events

29'

A. Watt↳ B. Banda

40'

B. Banda↳ A. Watt

45+2'

J. Doyle

52'

E. SamsOwn goal

58'

V. Pickett← H. Hopkins

58'

B. St-Georges← T. Lussi

59'

Victoria Pickett

63'

Kylie StromGoal cancelled

66'

C. Lawrence← J. Doyle

66'

B. Pinto← M. Matsukubo

67'

D. Weatherholt← A. Sanchez

76'

A. Allen← S. Yates

76'

C. Dyke← K. Abello

77'

R. Jackson← N. Miura

77'

B. Banda↳ C. Lawrence

83'

A. Lemos← B. Banda

83'

M. Larroquette← A. Watt

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OrlandoNorth

Overview

34%Possession66%

14Total Shots7

6Corners2

11Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots7

9On Target0

2Off Target5

3Blocked2

12Inside Box5

2Outside Box2

Passing

34%Possession66%

302Total Passes600

205Accurate Passes504

68%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls15

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides6