North Carolina Courage W 1–1 Orlando Pride W

North Carolina Courage W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Orlando Pride W

F. Rauch 27'

P. Chilufya 90'

5/10/2025

NWSL Women · Round 8WakeMed Soccer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

North Carolina Courage W50%

×Draw25%

Orlando Pride W25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North Carolina Courage WExpected goals in this matchOrlando Pride W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.08

North Carolina Courage W

1.63

Orlando Pride W

1.08

North Carolina Courage W creates 51% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 81 away

1.78

creates per match

1.09

1.06

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

North Carolina Courage W

1.78

Orlando Pride W

1.09

allows per match

North Carolina Courage W

1.06

Orlando Pride W

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Carolina Courage W+0.00on par

Orlando Pride W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina Courage W ↓

Orlando Pride W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

North Carolina Courage W or draw

75%

North Carolina Courage W or Orlando Pride W

75%

Draw or Orlando Pride W

50%

Winning margin

North Carolina Courage W wins by 2+

26%

Orlando Pride W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

North Carolina Courage W 1+ goals

80%

North Carolina Courage W 2+ goals

48%

North Carolina Courage W 3+ goals

22%

Orlando Pride W 1+ goals

66%

Orlando Pride W 2+ goals

29%

Orlando Pride W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

North Carolina Courage W (draw refunded)

67%

Orlando Pride W (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Carolina Courage W at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.06 · 81 matches

Orlando Pride W away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.48 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina Courage W attack 1.78 + Orlando Pride W defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.63

Orlando Pride W attack 1.09 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

North Carolina Courage W scores more

50%

level

25%

Orlando Pride W scores more

25%

North Carolina Courage W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "North Carolina Courage W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Marta

Orlando Pride W · F

8.2

Match Events

27'

33'

60'

61'

68'

68'

A. Watt← O. Hernandez

77'

T. Lussi← A. Sanchez

77'

H. Betfort← M. Matsukubo

77'

P. Chilufya← M. Gautrat

77'

A. Lemos← C. Pickett

84'

C. Dyke← Z. Chavoshi

90+1'

Aline Gomes← F. Rauch

90'

P. Chilufya↳ Angelina

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthOrlando

Overview

37%Possession63%

7Total Shots15

2Corners8

11Fouls8

Shots

7Total Shots15

2On Target3

3Off Target7

2Blocked5

4Inside Box13

3Outside Box2

Passing

37%Possession63%

340Total Passes572

260Accurate Passes507

76%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2