Orlando Pirates 8–1 Marumo Gallants: Result & Stats

Orlando Pirates

FT

8 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Marumo Gallants

Boitumelo Radiopane 90' (pen)

Thalente Mbatha 82', 70'

Tshegofatso Mabasa 64', 53', 47'

Deano van Rooyen 59'

Kenneth Nthatheni 1' (OG)

Gabadinho Mhango 23'

12/24/2024

Premier Soccer League · Round 8Orlando Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Orlando Pirates57%

×Draw26%

Marumo Gallants17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orlando PiratesExpected goals in this matchMarumo Gallants

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.70

Orlando Pirates

1.52

Marumo Gallants

0.70

Orlando Pirates creates 117% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 76 away

1.58

creates per match

0.72

0.69

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Orlando Pirates

1.58

Marumo Gallants

0.72

allows per match

Orlando Pirates

0.69

Marumo Gallants

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orlando Pirates+0.00on par

Marumo Gallants+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlando Pirates ↓

Marumo Gallants →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Orlando Pirates or draw

83%

Orlando Pirates or Marumo Gallants

74%

Draw or Marumo Gallants

43%

Winning margin

Orlando Pirates wins by 2+

30%

Marumo Gallants wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Orlando Pirates 1+ goals

78%

Orlando Pirates 2+ goals

45%

Orlando Pirates 3+ goals

20%

Marumo Gallants 1+ goals

50%

Marumo Gallants 2+ goals

16%

Marumo Gallants 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Orlando Pirates (draw refunded)

77%

Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlando Pirates at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.69 · 120 matches

Marumo Gallants away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlando Pirates attack 1.58 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

Marumo Gallants attack 0.72 + Orlando Pirates defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Orlando Pirates scores more

57%

level

26%

Marumo Gallants scores more

17%

Orlando Pirates at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Orlando Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

Thalente Mbatha

Orlando Pirates · M

9.3

Match Events

1'

Kenneth NthatheniOwn goal

16'

23'

33'

33'

47'

Tshegofatso Mabasa↳ Deano van Rooyen

53'

Tshegofatso Mabasa↳ Deon Hotto

58'

Siyabulela Shai← Mpambaniso Monde

58'

Sekela Sithole← Edgar Manaka

59'

Deano van Rooyen

64'

Tshegofatso Mabasa↳ Kabelo Dlamini

70'

Thalente Mbatha↳ Relebohile Mofokeng

72'

Gilberto← Mohau Nkota

72'

Paseka Mako← Deon Hotto

72'

Boitumelo Radiopane← Tshegofatso Mabasa

77'

Azola Tshobeni← Makhehlene Makhaula

82'

Thalente Mbatha↳ Paseka Mako

84'

Tapelo Xoki← Thabiso Sesane

85'

Thapelo Mokobodi← Phathutshedzo Nange

90'

Boitumelo RadiopanePenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OrlandoMarumo

Overview

68%Possession32%

19Total Shots9

4Corners4

16Fouls13

Shots

19Total Shots9

12On Target5

6Off Target2

1Blocked2

11Inside Box8

8Outside Box1

Passing

68%Possession32%

442Total Passes199

367Accurate Passes124

83%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

8Offsides0