Marumo Gallants 0–2 Orlando Pirates: Result & Stats

Marumo Gallants

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Orlando Pirates

N. Ndlondlo 68' (pen)

M. Saleng 36'

1/28/2023

Premier Soccer League · Round 15Royal Bafokeng Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Marumo Gallants27%

×Draw31%

Orlando Pirates42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Marumo GallantsExpected goals in this matchOrlando Pirates

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.84

1.13

Marumo Gallants

0.84

Orlando Pirates

1.13

Orlando Pirates creates 35% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 121 away

0.86

creates per match

1.24

1.01

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Marumo Gallants

0.86

Orlando Pirates

1.24

allows per match

Marumo Gallants

1.01

Orlando Pirates

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marumo Gallants+0.00on par

Orlando Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marumo Gallants ↓

Orlando Pirates →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–116%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Marumo Gallants or draw

58%

Marumo Gallants or Orlando Pirates

69%

Draw or Orlando Pirates

73%

Winning margin

Marumo Gallants wins by 2+

9%

Orlando Pirates wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Marumo Gallants 1+ goals

57%

Marumo Gallants 2+ goals

21%

Marumo Gallants 3+ goals

5%

Orlando Pirates 1+ goals

68%

Orlando Pirates 2+ goals

31%

Orlando Pirates 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)

39%

Orlando Pirates (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marumo Gallants at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Orlando Pirates away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.83 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marumo Gallants attack 0.86 + Orlando Pirates defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.84

Orlando Pirates attack 1.24 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Marumo Gallants scores more

27%

level

31%

Orlando Pirates scores more

42%

Orlando Pirates at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Orlando Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Katlego Otladisa

36'

M. Saleng↳ T. Dzvukamanja

43'

Lehlohonolo Nonyane

46'

S. Mdlinzo← K. Otladisa

46'

M. Mphambaniso← C. Ngema

57'

Chivaviro

63'

C. Soumaro← S. Kumalo

68'

N. NdlondloPenalty

71'

G. Mosele← K. Dlamini

72'

C. Martin← B. Shandu

78'

M. Pule← T. Dzvukamanja

84'

Deon Hotto

86'

B. Motshwari← N. Ndlondlo

86'

B. Eva Nga← M. Saleng

87'

T. Khiba← M. Mvelase

Possession

Shots

Statistics

MarumoOrlando

Overview

44%Possession56%

6Total Shots12

4Corners6

12Fouls15

Shots

6Total Shots12

3On Target4

3Blocked4

Passing

44%Possession56%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls15

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

5Offsides1