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Orlando Pirates vs Kaizer Chiefs — Premier Soccer League 2018

Orlando Pirates
Orlando Pirates
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefs
2/1/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 11First National Bank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Orlando Pirates45%
×Draw29%
Kaizer Chiefs26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orlando Pirates
1.25
Kaizer Chiefs
0.89

Orlando Pirates creates 40% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 119 away

creates per match

Orlando Pirates
1.56
Kaizer Chiefs
1.07

allows per match

Orlando Pirates
0.70
Kaizer Chiefs
0.95

finishing

Orlando Pirates+0.00on par
Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlando Pirates ↓

Kaizer Chiefs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Orlando Pirates or draw
74%
Orlando Pirates or Kaizer Chiefs
71%
Draw or Kaizer Chiefs
55%

Winning margin

Orlando Pirates wins by 2+
20%
Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Orlando Pirates 1+ goals
71%
Orlando Pirates 2+ goals
36%
Orlando Pirates 3+ goals
13%
Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals
59%
Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals
22%
Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Orlando Pirates (draw refunded)
63%
Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlando Pirates at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.70 · 119 matches

Kaizer Chiefs away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.95 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlando Pirates attack 1.56 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kaizer Chiefs attack 1.07 + Orlando Pirates defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Orlando Pirates scores more
45%
level
29%
Kaizer Chiefs scores more
26%

Orlando Pirates at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Orlando Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orlando Pirates vs Kaizer Chiefs

Orlando Pirates beat Kaizer Chiefs 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on February 1, 2025.

The match was played at First National Bank Stadium in Johannesburg.