Kaizer Chiefs 1–2 Orlando Pirates: Result & Stats

Kaizer Chiefs

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Orlando Pirates

5/3/2025

Premier Soccer League · Round 22First National Bank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Kaizer Chiefs31%

×Draw30%

Orlando Pirates39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kaizer ChiefsExpected goals in this matchOrlando Pirates

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.14

Kaizer Chiefs

0.99

Orlando Pirates

1.14

Orlando Pirates creates 15% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 119 away

1.16

creates per match

1.26

1.02

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Kaizer Chiefs

1.16

Orlando Pirates

1.26

allows per match

Kaizer Chiefs

1.02

Orlando Pirates

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par

Orlando Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaizer Chiefs ↓

Orlando Pirates →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Kaizer Chiefs or draw

61%

Kaizer Chiefs or Orlando Pirates

70%

Draw or Orlando Pirates

69%

Winning margin

Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+

12%

Orlando Pirates wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals

63%

Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals

26%

Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals

8%

Orlando Pirates 1+ goals

68%

Orlando Pirates 2+ goals

32%

Orlando Pirates 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)

45%

Orlando Pirates (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaizer Chiefs at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

Orlando Pirates away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.83 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaizer Chiefs attack 1.16 + Orlando Pirates defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.99

Orlando Pirates attack 1.26 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kaizer Chiefs scores more

31%

level

30%

Orlando Pirates scores more

39%

Orlando Pirates at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Orlando Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff