Orlando Pirates 0–1 Bidvest Wits: Result & Stats

Orlando Pirates

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bidvest Wits

8/15/2018

Premier Soccer League · Round 2Orlando Stadium (Johannesburg, GA)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Orlando Pirates41%

×Draw30%

Bidvest Wits29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orlando PiratesExpected goals in this matchBidvest Wits

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.93

Orlando Pirates

1.15

Bidvest Wits

0.93

Orlando Pirates creates 24% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 30 away

1.56

creates per match

1.17

0.70

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Orlando Pirates

1.56

Bidvest Wits

1.17

allows per match

Orlando Pirates

0.70

Bidvest Wits

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orlando Pirates+0.00on par

Bidvest Wits+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlando Pirates ↓

Bidvest Wits →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Orlando Pirates or draw

71%

Orlando Pirates or Bidvest Wits

70%

Draw or Bidvest Wits

59%

Winning margin

Orlando Pirates wins by 2+

17%

Bidvest Wits wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Orlando Pirates 1+ goals

68%

Orlando Pirates 2+ goals

32%

Orlando Pirates 3+ goals

11%

Bidvest Wits 1+ goals

61%

Bidvest Wits 2+ goals

24%

Bidvest Wits 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Orlando Pirates (draw refunded)

58%

Bidvest Wits (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlando Pirates at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.70 · 119 matches

Bidvest Wits away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlando Pirates attack 1.56 + Bidvest Wits defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.15

Bidvest Wits attack 1.17 + Orlando Pirates defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Orlando Pirates scores more

41%

level

30%

Bidvest Wits scores more

29%

Orlando Pirates at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Orlando Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff