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Bidvest Wits vs Orlando Pirates — Premier Soccer League 2018

Bidvest Wits
Bidvest Wits
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Orlando Pirates
Orlando Pirates
9/21/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 5Moses Mabhida Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bidvest Wits36%
×Draw29%
Orlando Pirates35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bidvest Wits
1.13
Orlando Pirates
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 119 away

creates per match

Bidvest Wits
1.43
Orlando Pirates
1.26

allows per match

Bidvest Wits
0.97
Orlando Pirates
0.83

finishing

Bidvest Wits+0.00on par
Orlando Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidvest Wits ↓

Orlando Pirates →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bidvest Wits or draw
65%
Bidvest Wits or Orlando Pirates
71%
Draw or Orlando Pirates
64%

Winning margin

Bidvest Wits wins by 2+
15%
Orlando Pirates wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bidvest Wits 1+ goals
68%
Bidvest Wits 2+ goals
31%
Bidvest Wits 3+ goals
11%
Orlando Pirates 1+ goals
67%
Orlando Pirates 2+ goals
30%
Orlando Pirates 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bidvest Wits (draw refunded)
51%
Orlando Pirates (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidvest Wits at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

Orlando Pirates away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.83 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidvest Wits attack 1.43 + Orlando Pirates defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.13

Orlando Pirates attack 1.26 + Bidvest Wits defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Bidvest Wits scores more
36%
level
29%
Orlando Pirates scores more
35%

Bidvest Wits at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Bidvest Wits will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bidvest Wits vs Orlando Pirates

Bidvest Wits beat Orlando Pirates 4-3 in Premier Soccer League on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Moses Mabhida Stadium in Durban.