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Almere City FC vs FC Volendam — Eerste Divisie 2018

Almere City FC
Almere City FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
FC Volendam
FC Volendam
J. Rijsdijk 65'
G. Salasiwa 7'
B. Steltenpool 44'
K. Visser 41'
1/13/2017Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 20Mitsubishi Forklift Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Almere City FC42%
×Draw24%
FC Volendam34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almere City FC
1.60
FC Volendam
1.41

Almere City FC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 91 away

creates per match

Almere City FC
1.75
FC Volendam
1.69

allows per match

Almere City FC
1.13
FC Volendam
1.46

finishing

Almere City FC+0.00on par
FC Volendam+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City FC ↓

FC Volendam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Almere City FC or draw
66%
Almere City FC or FC Volendam
76%
Draw or FC Volendam
58%

Winning margin

Almere City FC wins by 2+
21%
FC Volendam wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Almere City FC 1+ goals
80%
Almere City FC 2+ goals
47%
Almere City FC 3+ goals
22%
FC Volendam 1+ goals
76%
FC Volendam 2+ goals
41%
FC Volendam 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Almere City FC (draw refunded)
55%
FC Volendam (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City FC at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.13 · 110 matches

FC Volendam away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.46 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City FC attack 1.75 + FC Volendam defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.60

FC Volendam attack 1.69 + Almere City FC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Almere City FC scores more
42%
level
24%
FC Volendam scores more
34%

Almere City FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Almere City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
G. Salasiwa
41'
K. Visser
44'
B. Steltenpool
50'
R. Esseboom← H. Schilder
57'
K. van Kippersluis← J. Tuijp
65'
J. Rijsdijk
81'
R. ten Voorde← S. MacDonald
89'
J. Waalkens← S. Ahannach

Match Recap: Almere City FC vs FC Volendam

Almere City FC and FC Volendam drew 2-2 in Eerste Divisie on January 13, 2017.

Goals: G. Salasiwa (7'), K. Visser (41'), B. Steltenpool (44'), J. Rijsdijk (65').

The match was played at Mitsubishi Forklift Stadion in Almere.