FC Volendam 3–2 Almere City FC: Result & Stats

FC Volendam

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Almere City FC

M. Kaars 73'

R. Mühren 53', 9'

D. Breedijk 90+1'

M. Pouwels 31'

10/1/2021

Eerste Divisie · Round 9Kras Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

FC Volendam50%

×Draw22%

Almere City FC29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC VolendamExpected goals in this matchAlmere City FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.50

FC Volendam

2.02

Almere City FC

1.50

FC Volendam creates 35% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 113 away

2.19

creates per match

1.65

1.36

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

FC Volendam

2.19

Almere City FC

1.65

allows per match

FC Volendam

1.36

Almere City FC

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Volendam+0.00on par

Almere City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Volendam ↓

Almere City FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

FC Volendam or draw

71%

FC Volendam or Almere City FC

78%

Draw or Almere City FC

50%

Winning margin

FC Volendam wins by 2+

29%

Almere City FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FC Volendam 1+ goals

87%

FC Volendam 2+ goals

60%

FC Volendam 3+ goals

33%

Almere City FC 1+ goals

78%

Almere City FC 2+ goals

44%

Almere City FC 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

FC Volendam (draw refunded)

63%

Almere City FC (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Volendam at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.36 · 91 matches

Almere City FC away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.85 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Volendam attack 2.19 + Almere City FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.02

Almere City FC attack 1.65 + FC Volendam defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC Volendam scores more

50%

level

22%

Almere City FC scores more

29%

FC Volendam at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Volendam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

R. Mühren

FC Volendam · F

9.2

Match Events

9'

R. Mühren↳ D. Kasius

20'

S. Resink← T. Receveur

31'

M. Pouwels↳ B. van Hoeven

52'

Thijs van Leeuwen

53'

R. Mühren↳ I. El Kadiri

54'

M. Eerdhuijzen← G. Oristanio

63'

J. Arweiler← M. Pouwels

72'

J. Antonioli← C. Twigt

72'

M. Kaars← I. El Kadiri

73'

M. Kaars↳ R. Mühren

77'

D. James← D. Kasius

77'

M. de Haan← A. Plat

78'

J. Puriel← T. van Leeuwen

78'

M. Esajas← J. Smeets

89'

Stije Resink

90+1'

D. Breedijk↳ L. Duijvestijn

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCAlmere

Overview

55%Possession45%

14Total Shots14

3Corners8

11Fouls18

Shots

14Total Shots14

7On Target5

4Off Target4

3Blocked5

11Inside Box10

3Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

454Total Passes367

360Accurate Passes263

79%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls18

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1