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Almere City FC vs FC Volendam — Eerste Divisie 2018

Almere City FC
Almere City FC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
FC Volendam
FC Volendam
L. Duijvestijn 78', 32'
I. El Kadiri 74'
W. Ould-Chikh 67'
R. Mühren 55'
12/17/2021Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 20Yanmar Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Almere City FC42%
×Draw24%
FC Volendam33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almere City FC
1.61
FC Volendam
1.40

Almere City FC creates 15% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 91 away

creates per match

Almere City FC
1.75
FC Volendam
1.68

allows per match

Almere City FC
1.12
FC Volendam
1.47

finishing

Almere City FC+0.00on par
FC Volendam+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City FC ↓

FC Volendam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Almere City FC or draw
67%
Almere City FC or FC Volendam
76%
Draw or FC Volendam
58%

Winning margin

Almere City FC wins by 2+
22%
FC Volendam wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Almere City FC 1+ goals
80%
Almere City FC 2+ goals
48%
Almere City FC 3+ goals
22%
FC Volendam 1+ goals
75%
FC Volendam 2+ goals
41%
FC Volendam 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Almere City FC (draw refunded)
56%
FC Volendam (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City FC at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.12 · 112 matches

FC Volendam away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.47 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City FC attack 1.75 + FC Volendam defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.61

FC Volendam attack 1.68 + Almere City FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Almere City FC scores more
42%
level
24%
FC Volendam scores more
33%

Almere City FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Almere City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
A. EtemadiAlmere City FCAlmere City FC · G
8.5

Match Events

15'
E. Hoogenboom← R. Leeuwin
32'
L. Duijvestijn↳ J. Arweiler
46'
K. Visser← C. Twigt
46'
J. Flint← G. Oristanio
53'
Bram Van Vlerken
54'
Damon Mirani
55'
R. Mühren↳ D. van Mieghem
63'
M. Pouwels← J. Arweiler
64'
M. Esajas← T. van Leeuwen
67'
W. Ould-Chikh↳ M. Kaars
69'
Jeffry Puriel
73'
I. El Kadiri← M. Kaars
74'
I. El Kadiri↳ R. Mühren
76'
Marcelencio Esajas
78'
L. Duijvestijn↳ M. Pouwels
79'
L. Kromah← J. Puriel
79'
J. Zimmerman← T. Receveur
89'
L. Zeefuik← D. van Mieghem

Possession

46%Almere

Shots

4Almere

Pass accuracy

47%Almere

Statistics

AlmereFC
Overview
46%Possession54%
4Total Shots17
1Corners8
13Fouls6
Shots
4Total Shots17
3On Target12
1Off Target2
0Blocked3
3Inside Box9
1Outside Box8
Passing
46%Possession54%
382Total Passes431
246Accurate Passes312
64%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
9Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls6
3Yellow Cards1
5Offsides3

Eerste Divisie: Almere City FC 2–3 FC Volendam

FC Volendam beat Almere City FC 3-2 in Eerste Divisie on December 17, 2021.

Goals: L. Duijvestijn (32', 78'), R. Mühren (55'), W. Ould-Chikh (67'), I. El Kadiri (74').

FC Volendam controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 4.

The match was played at Yanmar Stadion in Almere.