Roasso Kumamoto 0–1 Mito Hollyhock: Result & Stats

Roasso Kumamoto

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mito Hollyhock

K. Mishima 81'

5/22/2016

J2 League · Round 14Kashiwa Hitachi Stadium (Kashiwa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Roasso Kumamoto34%

×Draw27%

Mito Hollyhock39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Roasso KumamotoExpected goals in this matchMito Hollyhock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.32

Roasso Kumamoto

1.21

Mito Hollyhock

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 109 home / 169 away

1.15

creates per match

1.20

1.45

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Roasso Kumamoto

1.15

Mito Hollyhock

1.20

allows per match

Roasso Kumamoto

1.45

Mito Hollyhock

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Roasso Kumamoto+0.00on par

Mito Hollyhock+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roasso Kumamoto ↓

Mito Hollyhock →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Roasso Kumamoto or draw

61%

Roasso Kumamoto or Mito Hollyhock

73%

Draw or Mito Hollyhock

66%

Winning margin

Roasso Kumamoto wins by 2+

14%

Mito Hollyhock wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Roasso Kumamoto 1+ goals

70%

Roasso Kumamoto 2+ goals

34%

Roasso Kumamoto 3+ goals

12%

Mito Hollyhock 1+ goals

73%

Mito Hollyhock 2+ goals

38%

Mito Hollyhock 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Roasso Kumamoto (draw refunded)

46%

Mito Hollyhock (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roasso Kumamoto at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.45 · 109 matches

Mito Hollyhock away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.27 · 169 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roasso Kumamoto attack 1.15 + Mito Hollyhock defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Mito Hollyhock attack 1.20 + Roasso Kumamoto defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Roasso Kumamoto scores more

34%

level

27%

Mito Hollyhock scores more

39%

Mito Hollyhock at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mito Hollyhock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'

E. Shirai← Y. Yuzawa

68'

S. Suzuki← J. Sonoda

69'

Y. Yamamura← R. Frank

72'

K. Kuroki← Y. Okamoto

81'

K. Mishima

85'

Anderson Andrade← S. Shimada

88'

J. Imase← T. Tamukai