Orlando City SC 2–2 Nashville SC: Result & Stats

Orlando City SC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Nashville SC

2/7/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Orlando City SC46%

×Draw22%

Nashville SC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orlando City SCExpected goals in this matchNashville SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.54

Orlando City SC

1.90

Nashville SC

1.54

Orlando City SC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

2.13

creates per match

1.33

1.75

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Orlando City SC

2.13

Nashville SC

1.33

allows per match

Orlando City SC

1.75

Nashville SC

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orlando City SC+0.00on par

Nashville SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlando City SC ↓

Nashville SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Orlando City SC or draw

68%

Orlando City SC or Nashville SC

78%

Draw or Nashville SC

54%

Winning margin

Orlando City SC wins by 2+

26%

Nashville SC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Orlando City SC 1+ goals

85%

Orlando City SC 2+ goals

56%

Orlando City SC 3+ goals

29%

Nashville SC 1+ goals

79%

Nashville SC 2+ goals

45%

Nashville SC 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Orlando City SC (draw refunded)

59%

Nashville SC (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlando City SC at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Nashville SC away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlando City SC attack 2.13 + Nashville SC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.90

Nashville SC attack 1.33 + Orlando City SC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Orlando City SC scores more

46%

level

22%

Nashville SC scores more

32%

Orlando City SC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Orlando City SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Orlando

Nashville

Manager: Oscar Pareja

Manager: Brian Callaghan