Orlando City SC 3–2 Nashville SC: Result & Stats

Orlando City SC

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Nashville SC

D. McGuire 90'

M. Ojeda 32', 30'

J. Shaffelburg 51'

H. Mukhtar 45'

9/20/2025

Major League Soccer · Round 31Inter&Co Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Orlando City SC41%

×Draw24%

Nashville SC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orlando City SCExpected goals in this matchNashville SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.45

Orlando City SC

1.58

Nashville SC

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 20 away

1.78

creates per match

1.14

1.76

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Orlando City SC

1.78

Nashville SC

1.14

allows per match

Orlando City SC

1.76

Nashville SC

1.39

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Orlando City SC-0.05on par

Nashville SC+0.06on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlando City SC ↓

Nashville SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Orlando City SC or draw

65%

Orlando City SC or Nashville SC

76%

Draw or Nashville SC

59%

Winning margin

Orlando City SC wins by 2+

20%

Nashville SC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Orlando City SC 1+ goals

79%

Orlando City SC 2+ goals

47%

Orlando City SC 3+ goals

21%

Nashville SC 1+ goals

77%

Nashville SC 2+ goals

42%

Nashville SC 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Orlando City SC (draw refunded)

54%

Nashville SC (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlando City SC at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.76 · 15 matches

Nashville SC away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.39 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlando City SC attack 1.78 + Nashville SC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.58

Nashville SC attack 1.14 + Orlando City SC defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Orlando City SC scores more

41%

level

24%

Nashville SC scores more

35%

Orlando City SC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Orlando City SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Ojeda

Orlando City SC · F

9.0

Match Events

22'

Rodrigo Schlegel

28'

Hany Mukhtar

29'

Edvard Sandvik Tagseth

30'

M. Ojeda

32'

M. Ojeda

45'

H. Mukhtar

46'

J. Shaffelburg← P. Yazbek

51'

J. Shaffelburg

63'

D. McGuire← L. Muriel

73'

T. Spicer← I. Angulo

77'

J. Bauer← J. Palacios

77'

M. Corcoran← G. Brugman

86'

D. Thorhallsson← D. Brekalo

86'

C. Guske← K. Smith

86'

B. Acosta← E. Tagseth

90+3'

Jacob Shaffelburg

90+1'

T. Schmitt← D. Lovitz

90'

D. McGuire↳ T. Spicer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OrlandoNashville

Overview

38%Possession62%

14Total Shots9

1.62Expected Goals (xG)1.35

4Corners3

6Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots9

6On Target6

5Off Target1

3Blocked2

9Inside Box8

5Outside Box1

Passing

38%Possession62%

387Total Passes653

343Accurate Passes594

89%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

-0.75Goals Prevented-0.75

Discipline

6Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1