Orkla 3–4 Mosjøen: Result & Stats

Orkla

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Mosjøen

9/15/2024

3. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 21Orkla Sparebank Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Orkla64%

×Draw17%

Mosjøen19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrklaExpected goals in this matchMosjøen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.84

1.53

Orkla

2.84

Mosjøen

1.53

Orkla creates 86% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.31

creates per match

0.69

2.38

allows per match

4.38

creates per match

Orkla

1.31

Mosjøen

0.69

allows per match

Orkla

2.38

Mosjøen

4.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orkla+0.00on par

Mosjøen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orkla ↓

Mosjøen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Orkla or draw

81%

Orkla or Mosjøen

83%

Draw or Mosjøen

36%

Winning margin

Orkla wins by 2+

44%

Mosjøen wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Orkla 1+ goals

94%

Orkla 2+ goals

77%

Orkla 3+ goals

53%

Mosjøen 1+ goals

78%

Mosjøen 2+ goals

45%

Mosjøen 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Orkla (draw refunded)

77%

Mosjøen (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orkla at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

Mosjøen away — creates 0.69, concedes 4.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orkla attack 1.31 + Mosjøen defence 4.38 → ÷2 → 2.84

Mosjøen attack 0.69 + Orkla defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Orkla scores more

64%

level

17%

Mosjøen scores more

19%

Orkla at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Orkla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff