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Mosjøen vs Orkla — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Mosjøen
Mosjøen
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Orkla
Orkla
8/26/20233. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 17Kippermoen gress 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mosjøen56%
×Draw18%
Orkla25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mosjøen
2.67
Orkla
1.78

Mosjøen creates 50% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

creates per match

Mosjøen
2.54
Orkla
1.48

allows per match

Mosjøen
2.08
Orkla
2.79

finishing

Mosjøen+0.00on par
Orkla+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mosjøen ↓

Orkla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Mosjøen or draw
75%
Mosjøen or Orkla
82%
Draw or Orkla
44%

Winning margin

Mosjøen wins by 2+
36%
Orkla wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mosjøen 1+ goals
93%
Mosjøen 2+ goals
74%
Mosjøen 3+ goals
49%
Orkla 1+ goals
83%
Orkla 2+ goals
53%
Orkla 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Mosjøen (draw refunded)
69%
Orkla (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mosjøen at home — creates 2.54, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Orkla away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mosjøen attack 2.54 + Orkla defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.67

Orkla attack 1.48 + Mosjøen defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mosjøen scores more
56%
level
18%
Orkla scores more
25%

Mosjøen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mosjøen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mosjøen vs Orkla

Orkla beat Mosjøen 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Kippermoen gress 1 in Mosjøen/Vefsn.