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Oriku vs Burreli — 1st Division 2019

Oriku
Oriku
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Burreli
Burreli
12/24/20201st Division1st Division · Round 9Fusha Sportive Orikum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Oriku50%
×Draw28%
Burreli22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oriku
1.36
Burreli
0.81

Oriku creates 68% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 100 away

creates per match

Oriku
1.28
Burreli
0.86

allows per match

Oriku
0.77
Burreli
1.44

finishing

Oriku+0.00on par
Burreli+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriku ↓

Burreli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Oriku or draw
78%
Oriku or Burreli
72%
Draw or Burreli
50%

Winning margin

Oriku wins by 2+
24%
Burreli wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Oriku 1+ goals
74%
Oriku 2+ goals
39%
Oriku 3+ goals
16%
Burreli 1+ goals
56%
Burreli 2+ goals
19%
Burreli 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Oriku (draw refunded)
69%
Burreli (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriku at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.77 · 39 matches

Burreli away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.44 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriku attack 1.28 + Burreli defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.36

Burreli attack 0.86 + Oriku defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Oriku scores more
50%
level
28%
Burreli scores more
22%

Oriku at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Oriku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Oriku 1–1 Burreli

Oriku and Burreli drew 1-1 in 1st Division on December 24, 2020.

The match was played at Fusha Sportive Orikum in Orikum.