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Burreli vs Oriku — 1st Division 2019

Burreli
Burreli
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Oriku
Oriku
10/2/20221st Division1st Division · Round 4Stadiumi Liri Ballabani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Burreli53%
×Draw31%
Oriku16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burreli
1.20
Oriku
0.51

Burreli creates 135% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 40 away

creates per match

Burreli
1.13
Oriku
0.40

allows per match

Burreli
0.61
Oriku
1.27

finishing

Burreli+0.00on par
Oriku+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burreli ↓

Oriku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Burreli or draw
84%
Burreli or Oriku
69%
Draw or Oriku
47%

Winning margin

Burreli wins by 2+
24%
Oriku wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Burreli 1+ goals
70%
Burreli 2+ goals
34%
Burreli 3+ goals
12%
Oriku 1+ goals
40%
Oriku 2+ goals
9%
Oriku 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Burreli (draw refunded)
77%
Oriku (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burreli at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.61 · 104 matches

Oriku away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.27 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burreli attack 1.13 + Oriku defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Oriku attack 0.40 + Burreli defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Burreli scores more
53%
level
31%
Oriku scores more
16%

Burreli at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Burreli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Burreli vs Oriku

Burreli beat Oriku 1-0 in 1st Division on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Liri Ballabani in Burreli.