Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Oriku vs Besa Kavajë — 1st Division 2019

Oriku
Oriku
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
9/14/20191st Division1st Division · Round 1Fusha Sportive Orikum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Oriku46%
×Draw27%
Besa Kavajë27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oriku
1.37
Besa Kavajë
0.98

Oriku creates 40% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 100 away

creates per match

Oriku
1.28
Besa Kavajë
1.20

allows per match

Oriku
0.77
Besa Kavajë
1.46

finishing

Oriku+0.00on par
Besa Kavajë+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriku ↓

Besa Kavajë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Oriku or draw
73%
Oriku or Besa Kavajë
73%
Draw or Besa Kavajë
54%

Winning margin

Oriku wins by 2+
22%
Besa Kavajë wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Oriku 1+ goals
75%
Oriku 2+ goals
40%
Oriku 3+ goals
16%
Besa Kavajë 1+ goals
62%
Besa Kavajë 2+ goals
26%
Besa Kavajë 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Oriku (draw refunded)
63%
Besa Kavajë (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriku at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.77 · 39 matches

Besa Kavajë away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.46 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriku attack 1.28 + Besa Kavajë defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.37

Besa Kavajë attack 1.20 + Oriku defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Oriku scores more
46%
level
27%
Besa Kavajë scores more
27%

Oriku at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Oriku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Oriku 2–1 Besa Kavajë

Oriku beat Besa Kavajë 2-1 in 1st Division on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Fusha Sportive Orikum in Orikum.