Besa Kavajë 2–0 Oriku: Result & Stats

Besa Kavajë

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Oriku

12/8/2019

1st Division · Round 10Kompleksi Internacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Besa Kavajë52%

×Draw28%

Oriku20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Besa KavajëExpected goals in this matchOriku

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.71

Besa Kavajë

1.36

Oriku

0.71

Besa Kavajë creates 92% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 40 away

1.46

creates per match

0.40

1.01

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Besa Kavajë

1.46

Oriku

0.40

allows per match

Besa Kavajë

1.01

Oriku

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Besa Kavajë+0.00on par

Oriku+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Kavajë ↓

Oriku →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Besa Kavajë or draw

80%

Besa Kavajë or Oriku

72%

Draw or Oriku

48%

Winning margin

Besa Kavajë wins by 2+

25%

Oriku wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Besa Kavajë 1+ goals

74%

Besa Kavajë 2+ goals

39%

Besa Kavajë 3+ goals

16%

Oriku 1+ goals

51%

Oriku 2+ goals

16%

Oriku 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Besa Kavajë (draw refunded)

73%

Oriku (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Kavajë at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.01 · 102 matches

Oriku away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.27 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Kavajë attack 1.46 + Oriku defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.36

Oriku attack 0.40 + Besa Kavajë defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Besa Kavajë scores more

52%

level

28%

Oriku scores more

20%

Besa Kavajë at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Besa Kavajë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff