Orijent 1919 vs Croatia Zmijavci — First NL 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 108+ matches
Orijent 191949%
Croatia Zmijavci25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Orijent 1919 creates 50% more chances
Season form · 108 home / 109 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Orijent 1919 ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Orijent 1919 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.11 · 108 matches
Croatia Zmijavci away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.67 · 109 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Orijent 1919 attack 1.36 + Croatia Zmijavci defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52
Croatia Zmijavci attack 0.90 + Orijent 1919 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Orijent 1919 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Orijent 1919 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Orijent 1919 host Croatia Zmijavci on Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 15:00. The match is part of the First NL 2018/2019 season.
First NL: Orijent 1919 0–1 Croatia Zmijavci
Croatia Zmijavci beat Orijent 1919 1-0 in First NL on May 2, 2026.
The match was played at Stadion Krimeja in Rijeka.