Croatia Zmijavci 1–1 Orijent 1919: Result & Stats

Croatia Zmijavci

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Orijent 1919

10/27/2024

First NL · Round 12Stadion ŠRC Marijan Šuto Mrma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Croatia Zmijavci44%

×Draw26%

Orijent 191930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Croatia ZmijavciExpected goals in this matchOrijent 1919

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.19

Croatia Zmijavci

1.50

Orijent 1919

1.19

Croatia Zmijavci creates 26% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 109 away

1.46

creates per match

1.32

1.06

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Croatia Zmijavci

1.46

Orijent 1919

1.32

allows per match

Croatia Zmijavci

1.06

Orijent 1919

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Croatia Zmijavci+0.00on par

Orijent 1919+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia Zmijavci ↓

Orijent 1919 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Croatia Zmijavci or draw

70%

Croatia Zmijavci or Orijent 1919

74%

Draw or Orijent 1919

56%

Winning margin

Croatia Zmijavci wins by 2+

22%

Orijent 1919 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Croatia Zmijavci 1+ goals

78%

Croatia Zmijavci 2+ goals

44%

Croatia Zmijavci 3+ goals

19%

Orijent 1919 1+ goals

70%

Orijent 1919 2+ goals

33%

Orijent 1919 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Croatia Zmijavci (draw refunded)

60%

Orijent 1919 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croatia Zmijavci at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.06 · 106 matches

Orijent 1919 away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.54 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croatia Zmijavci attack 1.46 + Orijent 1919 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.50

Orijent 1919 attack 1.32 + Croatia Zmijavci defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Croatia Zmijavci scores more

44%

level

26%

Orijent 1919 scores more

30%

Croatia Zmijavci at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Croatia Zmijavci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff