Orihuela 0–1 Levante II: Result & Stats

Orihuela

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Levante II

C. Bekkouche 46'

12/4/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 12Estadio Municipal Los Arcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Orihuela48%

×Draw27%

Levante II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrihuelaExpected goals in this matchLevante II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.91

Orihuela

1.38

Levante II

0.91

Orihuela creates 52% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 68 away

1.73

creates per match

1.12

0.70

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Orihuela

1.73

Levante II

1.12

allows per match

Orihuela

0.70

Levante II

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orihuela+0.00on par

Levante II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orihuela ↓

Levante II →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Orihuela or draw

75%

Orihuela or Levante II

73%

Draw or Levante II

52%

Winning margin

Orihuela wins by 2+

23%

Levante II wins by 2+

Team goals

Orihuela 1+ goals

75%

Orihuela 2+ goals

40%

Orihuela 3+ goals

16%

Levante II 1+ goals

60%

Levante II 2+ goals

23%

Levante II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Orihuela (draw refunded)

66%

Levante II (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Orihuela at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.70 · 33 matches

Levante II away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.03 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Orihuela attack 1.73 + Levante II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.38

Levante II attack 1.12 + Orihuela defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Orihuela scores more

48%

level

27%

Levante II scores more

25%

Orihuela at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Orihuela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

C. Bekkouche

60'

Lolo Ivars← Sergio Camacho

60'

Borja Mula← Jawed

60'

E. Varela← Steven

69'

Rodri← Andrés García

69'

Javier Jimenez← Álex Cerdá

72'

Joan Gallego← Hugo Redón

77'

Juanmi← Joel Febas

80'

José Damián← Héctor

80'

Hugo Gilabert← Iñaki Pardo

Orihuela

Levante

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Óscar Sánchez

60'▲Lolo Ivars←▼Sergio Camacho

60'▲Borja Mula←▼Jawed

60'▲E. Varela←▼Steven

80'▲José Damián←▼Héctor

80'▲Hugo Gilabert←▼Iñaki Pardo

Orihuela substitutes

IvarsMulaVarelaDamiánGilabert

Manager: Chema Sanz

69'▲Rodri←▼Andrés García

69'▲Javier Jimenez←▼Álex Cerdá

72'▲Joan Gallego←▼Hugo Redón

77'▲Juanmi←▼Joel Febas

Levante II substitutes

RodriJimenezGallegoJuanmi

Match Recap: Orihuela vs Levante II

Levante II beat Orihuela 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on December 4, 2022.

Goals: C. Bekkouche (46').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Los Arcos in Orihuela.

Orihuela vs Levante II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Orihuela vs Levante II