Levante II 2–1 Orihuela: Result & Stats

Levante II

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Orihuela

Álvaro Belizón 75' (pen)

C. Bekkouche 72'

Ayo 30'

4/2/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 27Ciudad Deportiva de Buñol Hierba Artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Levante II41%

×Draw29%

Orihuela29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levante IIExpected goals in this matchOrihuela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.95

Levante II

1.19

Orihuela

0.95

Levante II creates 25% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 33 away

1.32

creates per match

1.15

0.76

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Levante II

1.32

Orihuela

1.15

allows per match

Levante II

0.76

Orihuela

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levante II+0.00on par

Orihuela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante II ↓

Orihuela →

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Levante II or draw

71%

Levante II or Orihuela

71%

Draw or Orihuela

59%

Winning margin

Levante II wins by 2+

18%

Orihuela wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Levante II 1+ goals

70%

Levante II 2+ goals

33%

Levante II 3+ goals

12%

Orihuela 1+ goals

61%

Orihuela 2+ goals

25%

Orihuela 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Levante II (draw refunded)

59%

Orihuela (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Levante II at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.76 · 68 matches

Orihuela away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Levante II attack 1.32 + Orihuela defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.19

Orihuela attack 1.15 + Levante II defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Levante II scores more

41%

level

29%

Orihuela scores more

29%

Levante II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Levante II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

Ayo

46'

Xavi Pons← Iñaki Pardo

64'

Nacho Muñoz← José Damián

64'

Christian Perales← Steven

65'

Jordi Ferrer← Joel Febas

65'

C. Bekkouche← Andrés García

65'

Álvaro Belizón← Alyson

72'

C. Bekkouche

73'

C. Britos← Sergio Camacho

75'

Álvaro BelizónPenalty

79'

Lama← Joan Gallego

84'

Cambra← Álex Cerdá

84'

Javier García← Xavi Pons

Levante

Orihuela

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Chema Sanz

65'▲Jordi Ferrer←▼Joel Febas

65'▲C. Bekkouche←▼Andrés García

65'▲Álvaro Belizón←▼Alyson

79'▲Lama←▼Joan Gallego

84'▲Cambra←▼Álex Cerdá

Levante II substitutes

FerrerBekkoucheBelizónLamaCambra

Manager: Óscar Sánchez

46'▲Xavi Pons←▼Iñaki Pardo

64'▲Nacho Muñoz←▼José Damián

64'▲Christian Perales←▼Steven

73'▲C. Britos←▼Sergio Camacho

84'▲Javier García←▼Xavi Pons

Orihuela substitutes

PonsMuñozPeralesBritosGarcía

Match Recap: Levante II vs Orihuela

Levante II beat Orihuela 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on April 2, 2023.

Goals: Ayo (30'), C. Bekkouche (72'), Álvaro Belizón (75' pen).

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Buñol Hierba Artificial in Buñol.

Levante II vs Orihuela — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Levante II vs Orihuela