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Oriente Petrolero vs Libertad — Primera División 2019

Oriente Petrolero
Oriente Petrolero
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Libertad
Libertad
6/11/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 14Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Oriente Petrolero67%
×Draw19%
Libertad14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oriente Petrolero
2.28
Libertad
0.94

Oriente Petrolero creates 143% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 18 away

creates per match

Oriente Petrolero
1.73
Libertad
0.83

allows per match

Oriente Petrolero
1.04
Libertad
2.83

finishing

Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par
Libertad+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriente Petrolero ↓

Libertad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Oriente Petrolero or draw
86%
Oriente Petrolero or Libertad
81%
Draw or Libertad
33%

Winning margin

Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+
44%
Libertad wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals
90%
Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals
66%
Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals
39%
Libertad 1+ goals
61%
Libertad 2+ goals
24%
Libertad 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)
83%
Libertad (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriente Petrolero at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.04 · 131 matches

Libertad away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriente Petrolero attack 1.73 + Libertad defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.28

Libertad attack 0.83 + Oriente Petrolero defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Oriente Petrolero scores more
67%
level
19%
Libertad scores more
14%

Oriente Petrolero at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Oriente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oriente Petrolero vs Libertad

Oriente Petrolero and Libertad drew 1-1 in Primera División on June 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas in Santa Cruz de la Sierra.