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Libertad vs Oriente Petrolero — Primera División 2019

Libertad
Libertad
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Oriente Petrolero
Oriente Petrolero
11/19/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 31Estadio Gran Mamoré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Libertad53%
×Draw24%
Oriente Petrolero23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad
1.71
Oriente Petrolero
1.05

Libertad creates 63% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 127 away

creates per match

Libertad
1.35
Oriente Petrolero
1.17

allows per match

Libertad
0.94
Oriente Petrolero
2.06

finishing

Libertad+0.00on par
Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad ↓

Oriente Petrolero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Libertad or draw
77%
Libertad or Oriente Petrolero
76%
Draw or Oriente Petrolero
47%

Winning margin

Libertad wins by 2+
29%
Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Libertad 1+ goals
82%
Libertad 2+ goals
51%
Libertad 3+ goals
24%
Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals
65%
Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals
28%
Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Libertad (draw refunded)
69%
Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Oriente Petrolero away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.06 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad attack 1.35 + Oriente Petrolero defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.71

Oriente Petrolero attack 1.17 + Libertad defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Libertad scores more
53%
level
24%
Oriente Petrolero scores more
23%

Libertad at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Libertad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Libertad 3–1 Oriente Petrolero

Libertad beat Oriente Petrolero 3-1 in Primera División on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Gran Mamoré in Trinidad.