Oriente Petrolero 4–0 Guabirá: Result & Stats

Oriente Petrolero

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Guabirá

J. E. Cristaldo 90' (pen)

G. Alvarez 68' (pen)

K. F. Salvatierra Flores 53', 45'

11/3/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 24Estadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Oriente Petrolero61%

×Draw21%

Guabirá18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oriente PetroleroExpected goals in this matchGuabirá

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

0.98

Oriente Petrolero

1.99

Guabirá

0.98

Oriente Petrolero creates 103% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 128 away

1.71

creates per match

0.92

1.04

allows per match

2.28

creates per match

Oriente Petrolero

1.71

Guabirá

0.92

allows per match

Oriente Petrolero

1.04

Guabirá

2.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par

Guabirá+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriente Petrolero ↓

Guabirá →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Oriente Petrolero or draw

82%

Oriente Petrolero or Guabirá

79%

Draw or Guabirá

39%

Winning margin

Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+

37%

Guabirá wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals

86%

Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals

59%

Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals

32%

Guabirá 1+ goals

62%

Guabirá 2+ goals

26%

Guabirá 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)

77%

Guabirá (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriente Petrolero at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.04 · 130 matches

Guabirá away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.28 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriente Petrolero attack 1.71 + Guabirá defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.99

Guabirá attack 0.92 + Oriente Petrolero defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Oriente Petrolero scores more

61%

level

21%

Guabirá scores more

18%

Oriente Petrolero at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Oriente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

K. F. Salvatierra Flores

Oriente Petrolero · M

8.6

Match Events

11'

Nicolas Masskooni

43'

Dieguito Rodriguez

45'

Sergio Gil

45'

K. F. Salvatierra Flores↳ J. F. Santacruz Rodas

46'

J. Velasco← N. Masskooni

46'

H. Sanchez← Rafinha

49'

Dener da Silva

53'

K. F. Salvatierra Flores↳ G. Alvarez

55'

R. Centurion← K. F. Salvatierra Flores

55'

M. Villarroel← C. Anez

56'

M. Bonilla← M. Velasco

61'

H. Vaca← F. Nava

65'

Ricardo CenturiónPenalty confirmed

68'

T. Chavez← D. Da Silva

68'

G. AlvarezPenalty

70'

Luis Cardenas

77'

Jose Vitor Trindade NetoPenalty confirmed

80'

V. Cuellar← J. Berdecio

80'

J. E. Cristaldo← G. Alvarez

83'

Sebastian Alvarez

88'

K. Mina← S. Gil

89'

Víctor Cuellar

90+6'

Manuel Ferrel

90'

J. E. CristaldoPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OrienteGuabirá

Overview

53%Possession47%

18Total Shots10

3.15Expected Goals (xG)0.70

4Corners5

9Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots10

7On Target5

8Off Target1

3Blocked4

13Inside Box4

5Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

229Total Passes206

170Accurate Passes143

74%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls12

4Yellow Cards4

1Offsides5