Guabirá 2–0 Oriente Petrolero: Result & Stats

Guabirá

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Oriente Petrolero

J. Herrera 90+11' (pen)

E. Japa 84'

11/1/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 21Estadio Gilberto Parada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Guabirá54%

×Draw22%

Oriente Petrolero23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuabiráExpected goals in this matchOriente Petrolero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.18

Guabirá

1.92

Oriente Petrolero

1.18

Guabirá creates 63% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 128 away

1.82

creates per match

1.17

1.19

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Guabirá

1.82

Oriente Petrolero

1.17

allows per match

Guabirá

1.19

Oriente Petrolero

2.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guabirá+0.00on par

Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guabirá ↓

Oriente Petrolero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Guabirá or draw

77%

Guabirá or Oriente Petrolero

78%

Draw or Oriente Petrolero

46%

Winning margin

Guabirá wins by 2+

31%

Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Guabirá 1+ goals

85%

Guabirá 2+ goals

57%

Guabirá 3+ goals

30%

Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals

69%

Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals

33%

Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Guabirá (draw refunded)

70%

Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guabirá at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

Oriente Petrolero away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.01 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guabirá attack 1.82 + Oriente Petrolero defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.92

Oriente Petrolero attack 1.17 + Guabirá defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Guabirá scores more

54%

level

22%

Oriente Petrolero scores more

23%

Guabirá at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Guabirá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

J. Herrera

Guabirá · M

7.6

Match Events

39'

Roberto Diez

57'

F. Vargas← R. Diez

57'

D. Bejarano← H. Dorrego

58'

E. Japa← J. Montenegro

69'

D. Barreto← C. Áñez

72'

L. Hurtado← Pedro Augusto

80'

R. Morales← J. Lovera

80'

M. Villarroel← J. García

80'

D. Rojas← F. Gonzales

84'

E. Japa↳ J. Velasco

90+1'

Ronny Montero

90+8'

Julio HerreraPenalty confirmed

90+11'

J. HerreraPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuabiráOriente

Overview

48%Possession52%

14Total Shots8

7Corners2

13Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots8

6On Target3

4Off Target4

4Blocked1

9Inside Box3

5Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

275Total Passes306

197Accurate Passes219

72%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1