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Oriente Petrolero vs Always Ready — Primera División 2026

Oriente Petrolero
Oriente Petrolero
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Always Ready
Always Ready
12/11/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 27Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Oriente Petrolero46%
×Draw24%
Always Ready30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oriente Petrolero
1.62
Always Ready
1.27

Oriente Petrolero creates 28% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 129 away

creates per match

Oriente Petrolero
1.73
Always Ready
1.50

allows per match

Oriente Petrolero
1.04
Always Ready
1.51

finishing

Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par
Always Ready+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriente Petrolero ↓

Always Ready →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Oriente Petrolero or draw
70%
Oriente Petrolero or Always Ready
76%
Draw or Always Ready
54%

Winning margin

Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+
23%
Always Ready wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals
80%
Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals
48%
Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals
22%
Always Ready 1+ goals
72%
Always Ready 2+ goals
36%
Always Ready 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)
60%
Always Ready (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriente Petrolero at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.04 · 131 matches

Always Ready away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.51 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriente Petrolero attack 1.73 + Always Ready defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.62

Always Ready attack 1.50 + Oriente Petrolero defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Oriente Petrolero scores more
46%
level
24%
Always Ready scores more
30%

Oriente Petrolero at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Oriente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oriente Petrolero vs Always Ready

Oriente Petrolero beat Always Ready 2-1 in Primera División on December 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas in Santa Cruz de la Sierra.