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Oriental Lisboa vs Ideal — Taça de Portugal 2018

Oriental Lisboa
Oriental Lisboa
FT
2 – 0
Ideal
Ideal
9/8/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundCampo Engenheiro Carlos Salema

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Oriental Lisboa36%
×Draw32%
Ideal32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oriental Lisboa
0.97
Ideal
0.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Oriental Lisboa
1.14
Ideal
0.80

allows per match

Oriental Lisboa
1.00
Ideal
0.80

finishing

Oriental Lisboa+0.00on par
Ideal+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriental Lisboa ↓

Ideal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Oriental Lisboa or draw
68%
Oriental Lisboa or Ideal
68%
Draw or Ideal
64%

Winning margin

Oriental Lisboa wins by 2+
13%
Ideal wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Oriental Lisboa 1+ goals
62%
Oriental Lisboa 2+ goals
25%
Oriental Lisboa 3+ goals
7%
Ideal 1+ goals
59%
Ideal 2+ goals
23%
Ideal 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Oriental Lisboa (draw refunded)
53%
Ideal (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriental Lisboa at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Ideal away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriental Lisboa attack 1.14 + Ideal defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.97

Ideal attack 0.80 + Oriental Lisboa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Oriental Lisboa scores more
36%
level
32%
Ideal scores more
32%

Oriental Lisboa at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Oriental Lisboa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oriental Lisboa vs Ideal

Oriental Lisboa beat Ideal 2-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Engenheiro Carlos Salema in Lisboa.