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Ideal vs Oriental Lisboa — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G 2020

Ideal
Ideal
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Oriental Lisboa
Oriental Lisboa
2/14/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group GCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 16Campo Municipal da Ribeira Grande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ideal47%
×Draw28%
Oriental Lisboa25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ideal
1.36
Oriental Lisboa
0.91

Ideal creates 49% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Ideal
1.36
Oriental Lisboa
0.82

allows per match

Ideal
1.00
Oriental Lisboa
1.36

finishing

Ideal+0.00on par
Oriental Lisboa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ideal ↓

Oriental Lisboa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ideal or draw
75%
Ideal or Oriental Lisboa
72%
Draw or Oriental Lisboa
53%

Winning margin

Ideal wins by 2+
22%
Oriental Lisboa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ideal 1+ goals
74%
Ideal 2+ goals
39%
Ideal 3+ goals
16%
Oriental Lisboa 1+ goals
60%
Oriental Lisboa 2+ goals
23%
Oriental Lisboa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ideal (draw refunded)
65%
Oriental Lisboa (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ideal at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Oriental Lisboa away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ideal attack 1.36 + Oriental Lisboa defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.36

Oriental Lisboa attack 0.82 + Ideal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ideal scores more
47%
level
28%
Oriental Lisboa scores more
25%

Ideal at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ideal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G: Ideal 2–1 Oriental Lisboa

Ideal beat Oriental Lisboa 2-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G on February 14, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Municipal da Ribeira Grande in Ribeira Grande.