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Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS — Superettan 2026

Orgryte IS
Orgryte IS
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Landskrona BoIS
Landskrona BoIS
9/30/2025SuperettanSuperettan · Round 25Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Orgryte IS48%
×Draw24%
Landskrona BoIS28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orgryte IS
1.65
Landskrona BoIS
1.19

Orgryte IS creates 39% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 98 away

creates per match

Orgryte IS
1.67
Landskrona BoIS
1.16

allows per match

Orgryte IS
1.21
Landskrona BoIS
1.64

finishing

Orgryte IS+0.00on par
Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orgryte IS ↓

Landskrona BoIS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Orgryte IS or draw
72%
Orgryte IS or Landskrona BoIS
76%
Draw or Landskrona BoIS
52%

Winning margin

Orgryte IS wins by 2+
25%
Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Orgryte IS 1+ goals
81%
Orgryte IS 2+ goals
49%
Orgryte IS 3+ goals
23%
Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals
70%
Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals
33%
Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Orgryte IS (draw refunded)
64%
Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orgryte IS at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.21 · 122 matches

Landskrona BoIS away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.64 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orgryte IS attack 1.67 + Landskrona BoIS defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.65

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.16 + Orgryte IS defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Orgryte IS scores more
48%
level
24%
Landskrona BoIS scores more
28%

Orgryte IS at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Orgryte IS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Orgryte IS 2–0 Landskrona BoIS

Orgryte IS beat Landskrona BoIS 2-0 in Superettan on September 30, 2025.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi in Gothenburg.