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Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS — Superettan 2026

Landskrona BoIS
Landskrona BoIS
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Orgryte IS
Orgryte IS
6/24/2024SuperettanSuperettan · Round 13Landskrona Idrottsplats

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Landskrona BoIS43%
×Draw25%
Orgryte IS32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Landskrona BoIS
1.50
Orgryte IS
1.25

Landskrona BoIS creates 20% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 122 away

creates per match

Landskrona BoIS
1.55
Orgryte IS
1.29

allows per match

Landskrona BoIS
1.21
Orgryte IS
1.46

finishing

Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par
Orgryte IS+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Landskrona BoIS ↓

Orgryte IS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Landskrona BoIS or draw
68%
Landskrona BoIS or Orgryte IS
75%
Draw or Orgryte IS
57%

Winning margin

Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+
21%
Orgryte IS wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals
78%
Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals
44%
Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals
19%
Orgryte IS 1+ goals
71%
Orgryte IS 2+ goals
36%
Orgryte IS 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)
58%
Orgryte IS (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Landskrona BoIS at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.21 · 98 matches

Orgryte IS away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.55 + Orgryte IS defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.50

Orgryte IS attack 1.29 + Landskrona BoIS defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Landskrona BoIS scores more
43%
level
25%
Orgryte IS scores more
32%

Landskrona BoIS at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Landskrona BoIS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS

Landskrona BoIS beat Orgryte IS 4-3 in Superettan on June 24, 2024.

The match was played at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Landskrona.