Orgryte IS 1–4 Gais: Result & Stats | Superettan

Orgryte IS

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Gais

E. Sylisufaj 52'

Julius Lindberg 90+3'

A. Henriksson 65'

M. Çelik 36'

R. Frej 19'

9/28/2023

Superettan · Round 24Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Orgryte IS43%

×Draw26%

Gais31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orgryte ISExpected goals in this matchGais

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.21

Orgryte IS

1.46

Gais

1.21

Orgryte IS creates 21% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 76 away

1.67

creates per match

1.21

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Orgryte IS

1.67

Gais

1.21

allows per match

Orgryte IS

1.21

Gais

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orgryte IS+0.00on par

Gais+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orgryte IS ↓

Gais →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Orgryte IS or draw

69%

Orgryte IS or Gais

74%

Draw or Gais

57%

Winning margin

Orgryte IS wins by 2+

21%

Gais wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Orgryte IS 1+ goals

77%

Orgryte IS 2+ goals

43%

Orgryte IS 3+ goals

18%

Gais 1+ goals

70%

Gais 2+ goals

34%

Gais 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Orgryte IS (draw refunded)

58%

Gais (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orgryte IS at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.21 · 122 matches

Gais away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orgryte IS attack 1.67 + Gais defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.46

Gais attack 1.21 + Orgryte IS defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Orgryte IS scores more

43%

level

26%

Gais scores more

31%

Orgryte IS at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Orgryte IS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

36'

51'

52'

53'

60'

A. Wängberg← J. Åberg

60'

C. Amatkarijo← Jonas Lindberg

63'

Isak Dahlqvist

65'

A. Henriksson

70'

N. Bärkroth← N. Christoffersson

74'

Kevin Holmén

74'

Julius Lindberg

83'

H. Dahlqvist← I. Dahlqvist

83'

E. Sadiku← J. Drott

83'

V. Krüger← A. Henriksson

83'

A. Ahl-Holmström← D. Salihović

87'

V. Lundberg← D. Paulson

87'

M. Nuh← E. Sylisufaj

90+10'

Linus Tagesson

90+4'

Mergim Krasniqi

90+8'

N. Andersén← M. Çelik

90+3'

Julius Lindberg

Shots

Statistics

OrgryteGais

Overview

8Total Shots13

5Corners9

15Fouls7

Shots

8Total Shots13

3On Target5

4Off Target6

1Blocked2

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls7

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0