Gais 4–0 Orgryte IS: Result & Stats | Allsvenskan

Gais

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Orgryte IS

O. Pettersson 90'

J. Fagerjord 52' (pen)

S. Salter 46'

M. Andersson 33'

5/3/2026

Allsvenskan · Round 6Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gais73%

×Draw18%

Orgryte IS9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GaisExpected goals in this matchOrgryte IS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.58

Gais

2.10

Orgryte IS

0.58

Gais creates 262% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 7 away

1.49

creates per match

0.43

0.73

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Gais

1.49

Orgryte IS

0.43

allows per match

Gais

0.73

Orgryte IS

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gais+0.00on par

Orgryte IS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gais ↓

Orgryte IS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Gais or draw

91%

Gais or Orgryte IS

82%

Draw or Orgryte IS

27%

Winning margin

Gais wins by 2+

47%

Orgryte IS wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Gais 1+ goals

88%

Gais 2+ goals

62%

Gais 3+ goals

35%

Orgryte IS 1+ goals

44%

Orgryte IS 2+ goals

12%

Orgryte IS 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Gais (draw refunded)

89%

Orgryte IS (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gais at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.73 · 37 matches

Orgryte IS away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gais attack 1.49 + Orgryte IS defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.10

Orgryte IS attack 0.43 + Gais defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Gais scores more

73%

level

18%

Orgryte IS scores more

9%

Gais at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Fagerjord

Gais · M

8.9

Match Events

31'

Jerome Tibbling Ugwo

33'

M. Andersson↳ W. Milovanovic

46'

J. Azulay← M. Dyrestam

46'

S. Salter↳ M. Andersson

52'

J. FagerjordPenalty

57'

N. Christoffersson← O. Parker-Price

57'

H. Dahlqvist← A. Andreasson

62'

M. Bawa← M. Andersson

74'

R. Frej← M. de Brienne

74'

O. Pettersson← R. Thorkelsson

74'

C. Vindehall← W. Hofvander

80'

D. Hodzic← B. Laturnus

82'

S. Ekong← S. Salter

82'

F. Beckman← J. Fagerjord

90'

O. Pettersson↳ W. Milovanovic

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GaisOrgryte

Overview

50%Possession50%

19Total Shots5

8Corners2

12Fouls14

Shots

19Total Shots5

6On Target1

9Off Target2

4Blocked2

12Inside Box5

7Outside Box0

Passing

50%Possession50%

427Total Passes430

340Accurate Passes344

80%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls14

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3