Orgryte IS vs BK Hacken — Allsvenskan 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 7+ matches
Orgryte IS41%
BK Hacken35%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 7 home / 111 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over63
- Under37
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes64
- No36
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Orgryte IS ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Orgryte IS at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches
BK Hacken away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.37 · 111 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Orgryte IS attack 2.00 + BK Hacken defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.69
BK Hacken attack 1.40 + Orgryte IS defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.55
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Orgryte IS at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Orgryte IS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Malmo FF
IF elfsborgBK Hacken
Djurgardens IF
Mjallby AIF
IFK Norrkoping
Orebro SK
Hammarby FF
AIK stockholm
Sirius
Varbergs BoIS FC
IFK Goteborg
Ostersunds FK
kalmar FF
Helsingborg
falkenbergs FFIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Orgryte IS host BK Hacken on Saturday, 11 July 2026 at 15:30. The match is part of the Allsvenskan 2019/2020 season.
Orgryte IS 4 – 3 BK Hacken
Orgryte IS beat BK Hacken 4-3 in Allsvenskan on July 11, 2026.
Goals: A. Andersson (5'), J. Lindberg (12'), A. Svanback (41'), N. Christoffersson (70', 87'), J. Tibbling (75'), A. Doumbia (77').
BK Hacken controlled possession (61%) and registered 19 shots to 15.
The match was played at Gamla Ullevi in Gothenburg.