BK Hacken 2–0 Orgryte IS: Result & Stats

BK Hacken

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Orgryte IS

P. Dahbo 61'

S. Andersen 36'

2/14/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

BK Hacken64%

×Draw18%

Orgryte IS17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BK HackenExpected goals in this matchOrgryte IS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.19

BK Hacken

2.42

Orgryte IS

1.19

BK Hacken creates 103% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 4 away

2.33

creates per match

0.50

1.87

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

BK Hacken

2.33

Orgryte IS

0.50

allows per match

BK Hacken

1.87

Orgryte IS

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BK Hacken+0.00on par

Orgryte IS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BK Hacken ↓

Orgryte IS →

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

BK Hacken or draw

83%

BK Hacken or Orgryte IS

82%

Draw or Orgryte IS

36%

Winning margin

BK Hacken wins by 2+

42%

Orgryte IS wins by 2+

Team goals

BK Hacken 1+ goals

91%

BK Hacken 2+ goals

69%

BK Hacken 3+ goals

43%

Orgryte IS 1+ goals

70%

Orgryte IS 2+ goals

33%

Orgryte IS 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

BK Hacken (draw refunded)

79%

Orgryte IS (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

BK Hacken at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Orgryte IS away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

BK Hacken attack 2.33 + Orgryte IS defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.42

Orgryte IS attack 0.50 + BK Hacken defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

BK Hacken scores more

64%

level

18%

Orgryte IS scores more

17%

BK Hacken at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "BK Hacken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

36'

S. Andersen

37'

61'

P. Dahbo

72'

Orgryte

⚽

⚽

Manager: Jens Gustafsson

BK Hacken substitutes

99Berisha23Samuelsson28Ohman44Hilvenius17Engdahl6Doumbia18Saed29Nioule40Gashi

Manager: Andreas Holmberg

Orgryte IS substitutes

30Nilsson34Rahm6Dyrestam26Synnergren21Kenndal8Laturnus27Kyhlen16Dahlqvist22Sana31Abukar29Ebietomere20Karlsson15Tibbling