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Orgryte IS vs AIK Stockholm — Svenska Cupen 2019

Orgryte IS
Orgryte IS
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm
3/1/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Orgryte IS17%
×Draw19%
AIK Stockholm64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orgryte IS
1.13
AIK Stockholm
2.35

AIK Stockholm creates 108% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 19 away

creates per match

Orgryte IS
1.20
AIK Stockholm
3.11

allows per match

Orgryte IS
1.60
AIK Stockholm
1.05

finishing

Orgryte IS+0.00on par
AIK Stockholm+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orgryte IS ↓

AIK Stockholm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Orgryte IS or draw
36%
Orgryte IS or AIK Stockholm
81%
Draw or AIK Stockholm
83%

Winning margin

Orgryte IS wins by 2+
6%
AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Orgryte IS 1+ goals
68%
Orgryte IS 2+ goals
31%
Orgryte IS 3+ goals
11%
AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
90%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
68%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Orgryte IS (draw refunded)
21%
AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orgryte IS at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

AIK Stockholm away — creates 3.11, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orgryte IS attack 1.20 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.13

AIK Stockholm attack 3.11 + Orgryte IS defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Orgryte IS scores more
17%
level
19%
AIK Stockholm scores more
64%

AIK Stockholm at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orgryte IS vs AIK Stockholm

AIK Stockholm beat Orgryte IS 1-0 in Svenska Cupen on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Bravida Arena in Göteborg.