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AIK Stockholm vs Orgryte IS — Svenska Cupen 2019

AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Orgryte IS
Orgryte IS
2/19/2022Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Skytteholms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

AIK Stockholm65%
×Draw20%
Orgryte IS15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AIK Stockholm
2.07
Orgryte IS
0.88

AIK Stockholm creates 135% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 16 away

creates per match

AIK Stockholm
2.08
Orgryte IS
1.06

allows per match

AIK Stockholm
0.69
Orgryte IS
2.06

finishing

AIK Stockholm+0.00on par
Orgryte IS+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK Stockholm ↓

Orgryte IS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

AIK Stockholm or draw
85%
AIK Stockholm or Orgryte IS
80%
Draw or Orgryte IS
35%

Winning margin

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
40%
Orgryte IS wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
87%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
61%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
34%
Orgryte IS 1+ goals
59%
Orgryte IS 2+ goals
22%
Orgryte IS 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
81%
Orgryte IS (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK Stockholm at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Orgryte IS away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK Stockholm attack 2.08 + Orgryte IS defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.07

Orgryte IS attack 1.06 + AIK Stockholm defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

AIK Stockholm scores more
65%
level
20%
Orgryte IS scores more
15%

AIK Stockholm at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: AIK Stockholm 2–0 Orgryte IS

AIK Stockholm beat Orgryte IS 2-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at Skytteholms IP in Solna.