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Orgánica Masachapa vs Matagalpa — Primera Division 2026

Orgánica Masachapa
Orgánica Masachapa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Matagalpa
Matagalpa
4/15/2024Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 14Estadio Nacional de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Orgánica Masachapa33%
×Draw24%
Matagalpa43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orgánica Masachapa
1.42
Matagalpa
1.63

Matagalpa creates 15% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 78 away

creates per match

Orgánica Masachapa
1.17
Matagalpa
1.15

allows per match

Orgánica Masachapa
2.11
Matagalpa
1.68

finishing

Orgánica Masachapa+0.00on par
Matagalpa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orgánica Masachapa ↓

Matagalpa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Orgánica Masachapa or draw
57%
Orgánica Masachapa or Matagalpa
76%
Draw or Matagalpa
67%

Winning margin

Orgánica Masachapa wins by 2+
15%
Matagalpa wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Orgánica Masachapa 1+ goals
76%
Orgánica Masachapa 2+ goals
41%
Orgánica Masachapa 3+ goals
17%
Matagalpa 1+ goals
80%
Matagalpa 2+ goals
48%
Matagalpa 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Orgánica Masachapa (draw refunded)
44%
Matagalpa (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orgánica Masachapa at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

Matagalpa away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.68 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orgánica Masachapa attack 1.17 + Matagalpa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.42

Matagalpa attack 1.15 + Orgánica Masachapa defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Orgánica Masachapa scores more
33%
level
24%
Matagalpa scores more
43%

Matagalpa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Matagalpa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Orgánica Masachapa 1–2 Matagalpa

Matagalpa beat Orgánica Masachapa 2-1 in Primera Division on April 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional de Fútbol in Managua.