Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Matagalpa vs Orgánica Masachapa — Primera Division 2026

Matagalpa
Matagalpa
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Orgánica Masachapa
Orgánica Masachapa
2/17/2024Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 5Estadio Carlos Fonseca Amador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Matagalpa57%
×Draw22%
Orgánica Masachapa22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Matagalpa
1.99
Orgánica Masachapa
1.15

Matagalpa creates 73% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 18 away

creates per match

Matagalpa
1.54
Orgánica Masachapa
0.89

allows per match

Matagalpa
1.41
Orgánica Masachapa
2.44

finishing

Matagalpa+0.00on par
Orgánica Masachapa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matagalpa ↓

Orgánica Masachapa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Matagalpa or draw
78%
Matagalpa or Orgánica Masachapa
78%
Draw or Orgánica Masachapa
43%

Winning margin

Matagalpa wins by 2+
34%
Orgánica Masachapa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Matagalpa 1+ goals
86%
Matagalpa 2+ goals
59%
Matagalpa 3+ goals
32%
Orgánica Masachapa 1+ goals
68%
Orgánica Masachapa 2+ goals
32%
Orgánica Masachapa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Matagalpa (draw refunded)
72%
Orgánica Masachapa (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Matagalpa at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.41 · 76 matches

Orgánica Masachapa away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Matagalpa attack 1.54 + Orgánica Masachapa defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.99

Orgánica Masachapa attack 0.89 + Matagalpa defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Matagalpa scores more
57%
level
22%
Orgánica Masachapa scores more
22%

Matagalpa at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Matagalpa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Matagalpa 3–2 Orgánica Masachapa

Matagalpa beat Orgánica Masachapa 3-2 in Primera Division on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Fonseca Amador in Matagalpa.