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Orgánica Masachapa vs Jalapa — Primera Division 2026

Orgánica Masachapa
Orgánica Masachapa
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Jalapa
Jalapa
11/4/2023Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 15Estadio Nacional de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Orgánica Masachapa41%
×Draw24%
Jalapa36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orgánica Masachapa
1.63
Jalapa
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 131 away

creates per match

Orgánica Masachapa
1.17
Jalapa
0.91

allows per match

Orgánica Masachapa
2.11
Jalapa
2.08

finishing

Orgánica Masachapa+0.00on par
Jalapa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orgánica Masachapa ↓

Jalapa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Orgánica Masachapa or draw
64%
Orgánica Masachapa or Jalapa
76%
Draw or Jalapa
59%

Winning margin

Orgánica Masachapa wins by 2+
21%
Jalapa wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Orgánica Masachapa 1+ goals
80%
Orgánica Masachapa 2+ goals
48%
Orgánica Masachapa 3+ goals
22%
Jalapa 1+ goals
78%
Jalapa 2+ goals
44%
Jalapa 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Orgánica Masachapa (draw refunded)
53%
Jalapa (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orgánica Masachapa at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

Jalapa away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.08 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orgánica Masachapa attack 1.17 + Jalapa defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.63

Jalapa attack 0.91 + Orgánica Masachapa defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Orgánica Masachapa scores more
41%
level
24%
Jalapa scores more
36%

Orgánica Masachapa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Orgánica Masachapa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orgánica Masachapa vs Jalapa

Orgánica Masachapa beat Jalapa 3-2 in Primera Division on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional de Fútbol in Managua.