Jalapa 2–0 Orgánica Masachapa: Result & Stats

Jalapa

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Orgánica Masachapa

8/30/2023

Primera Division · Apertura - 6Estadio Alejandro Ramos Turcio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Jalapa62%

×Draw22%

Orgánica Masachapa16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JalapaExpected goals in this matchOrgánica Masachapa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

0.84

Jalapa

1.87

Orgánica Masachapa

0.84

Jalapa creates 123% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 18 away

1.30

creates per match

0.89

0.79

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Jalapa

1.30

Orgánica Masachapa

0.89

allows per match

Jalapa

0.79

Orgánica Masachapa

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jalapa+0.00on par

Orgánica Masachapa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jalapa ↓

Orgánica Masachapa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Jalapa or draw

84%

Jalapa or Orgánica Masachapa

78%

Draw or Orgánica Masachapa

38%

Winning margin

Jalapa wins by 2+

36%

Orgánica Masachapa wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Jalapa 1+ goals

85%

Jalapa 2+ goals

56%

Jalapa 3+ goals

29%

Orgánica Masachapa 1+ goals

57%

Orgánica Masachapa 2+ goals

21%

Orgánica Masachapa 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Jalapa (draw refunded)

79%

Orgánica Masachapa (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jalapa at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.79 · 131 matches

Orgánica Masachapa away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jalapa attack 1.30 + Orgánica Masachapa defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.87

Orgánica Masachapa attack 0.89 + Jalapa defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Jalapa scores more

62%

level

22%

Orgánica Masachapa scores more

16%

Jalapa at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Jalapa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff