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Orestis Orestiadas vs Doxa Dramas — League #576 2026

Orestis Orestiadas
Orestis Orestiadas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Doxa Dramas
Doxa Dramas
2/11/2024League #576League #576 · Group 1 - 22Dimotiko Stadio Orestiadas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Orestis Orestiadas23%
×Draw25%
Doxa Dramas52%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orestis Orestiadas
0.97
Doxa Dramas
1.58

Doxa Dramas creates 63% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

creates per match

Orestis Orestiadas
0.60
Doxa Dramas
1.17

allows per match

Orestis Orestiadas
2.00
Doxa Dramas
1.33

finishing

Orestis Orestiadas+0.00on par
Doxa Dramas+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orestis Orestiadas ↓

Doxa Dramas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Orestis Orestiadas or draw
48%
Orestis Orestiadas or Doxa Dramas
75%
Draw or Doxa Dramas
77%

Winning margin

Orestis Orestiadas wins by 2+
8%
Doxa Dramas wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Orestis Orestiadas 1+ goals
62%
Orestis Orestiadas 2+ goals
25%
Orestis Orestiadas 3+ goals
7%
Doxa Dramas 1+ goals
79%
Doxa Dramas 2+ goals
47%
Doxa Dramas 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Orestis Orestiadas (draw refunded)
31%
Doxa Dramas (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orestis Orestiadas at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Doxa Dramas away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orestis Orestiadas attack 0.60 + Doxa Dramas defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.97

Doxa Dramas attack 1.17 + Orestis Orestiadas defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Orestis Orestiadas scores more
23%
level
25%
Doxa Dramas scores more
52%

Doxa Dramas at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Doxa Dramas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #576: Orestis Orestiadas 1–0 Doxa Dramas

Orestis Orestiadas beat Doxa Dramas 1-0 in League #576 on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Dimotiko Stadio Orestiadas in Orestiada.