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Doxa Dramas vs Orestis Orestiadas — League #576 2026

Doxa Dramas
Doxa Dramas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Orestis Orestiadas
Orestis Orestiadas
10/7/2023League #576League #576 · Group 1 - 5Stadio Doxas Dramas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Doxa Dramas75%
×Draw14%
Orestis Orestiadas11%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doxa Dramas
2.92
Orestis Orestiadas
1.04

Doxa Dramas creates 181% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Doxa Dramas
2.60
Orestis Orestiadas
0.69

allows per match

Doxa Dramas
1.40
Orestis Orestiadas
3.23

finishing

Doxa Dramas+0.00on par
Orestis Orestiadas+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doxa Dramas ↓

Orestis Orestiadas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Doxa Dramas or draw
89%
Doxa Dramas or Orestis Orestiadas
86%
Draw or Orestis Orestiadas
25%

Winning margin

Doxa Dramas wins by 2+
55%
Orestis Orestiadas wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Doxa Dramas 1+ goals
94%
Doxa Dramas 2+ goals
78%
Doxa Dramas 3+ goals
55%
Orestis Orestiadas 1+ goals
65%
Orestis Orestiadas 2+ goals
28%
Orestis Orestiadas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Doxa Dramas (draw refunded)
87%
Orestis Orestiadas (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doxa Dramas at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Orestis Orestiadas away — creates 0.69, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doxa Dramas attack 2.60 + Orestis Orestiadas defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.92

Orestis Orestiadas attack 0.69 + Doxa Dramas defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Doxa Dramas scores more
75%
level
14%
Orestis Orestiadas scores more
11%

Doxa Dramas at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Doxa Dramas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #576: Doxa Dramas 0–0 Orestis Orestiadas

Doxa Dramas and Orestis Orestiadas drew 0-0 in League #576 on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Doxas Dramas in Drama.